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Weekly update: week 33
It becomes a weekly habit to give an update on Trumps trade war… China sees his industry growth going to the lowest point in 7 years, export and import with the US is in decline and Singapore sees its growth evaporate.
- Groei verdampt in Singapore, graadmeter voor de wereldhandel – FD (13/8/2019)
- Groei Chinese industrie naar laagste niveau in zeventien jaar – FD (14/8/2019)
- Handel tussen VS en China krijgt knauw – FD (14/8/2019)
Germany as a response to the deteriorated economic fundaments should step away from the “black zero” hinting that they should increase their government spending at the cost of the balanced budget. The Dutch economy in contrast to Germany is performing allot more robust and furthermore in contrast of their German neighbours they have a “war-treasury” to increase government stimulans if the economy would slide into recession.
In Europe the assumptions towards the meeting of the ECB in September keep a strong pressure on the financial markets. Italy saw its interest rate drop despite their political crisis. On the bond markets, the 2 year bonds are trading at higher returns than the 10 year bonds and variable interest rate on 10 years was higher than 10 year fixed. These elements hint that potentially a recession is at hand. It is possible that the bond markets are overreacting compared to the actual change in interest rates in September. Furthermore, where before the Norwegian Central Bank raised interest rates when the rest of Europe was hinting towards a wider monetary policy, they have now cancelled a third raise and currently keeps interest rates at 1,25%. The head of Blackrock states that the planned monetary moves will be insufficient. He suggest helicopter money as current measures have very limited effect.
- Italiaanse rente zakt ondanks regeringscrisis – FD (12/8/2019)
- Tienjaarsrente hypotheek is nu lager dan variabel – FD (13/8/2019)
- Nederlandse economie bloeit terwijl Duitse krimpt – FD (14/8/2019)
- Economen roepen Berlijn op geld te laten rollen – FD (14/8/2019)
- Recessie-angst op obligatiemarkten – FD (14/8/2019)
- ECB maant banken zich beteer voor te bereiden op no deal-brexit – FD (14/8/2019)
- Noorse kroon daalt na rente besluit – FD (15/8/2019)
- BlackRock-bestuurder maakt zich sterk voor helikoptergeld – FD (15/8/2019)
- Overheid heeft, tegen wil en dank, buffer om economie draaiend te houden – FD (16/8/2019)
- Obligatiemarkten in de greep van recessievrees – FD (17/8/2019)