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Macro-economic insights

Weekly update: week 29

According to the Dutch CBS a recession is not immanent as the current growth, however low, is broad across all sectors. Non-food sectors is performing quite well in the last quarter. Sustainable growth is more important then higher productivity. In the Netherlands there has never been a higher participation to the labour market as now, with an average annual job growth of 200.000 jobs over the last 3 years. Apart from these positive figures, the Euro has depreciated after disappointing ZEW numbers was published this week. The Brexit, Iran tensions and the continuing trade war are at the basis. There is a difference between the negative sentiment and the reality. The volatility remains very low with the US GDP number per capita barely moving and the €/$ course moving within a 3 cents margin. Everybody is expecting the worse however the 0-growth number has not been hit at all. The different economical opinions present us with a high unclarity rather then uncertainty. Were some liberals hope to avoid a recession by migration as they believe it is the lack of population growth which is at the base of the low economical growth numbers. It is safe to say that we will continue to read different opinions on these events with no direct consensus of what is significant and what isn’t.

  • Sterkere, duurzame economische groei belangrijker dan hogere productiviteit
  • Economie groeit over breed front door, laten nieuwe CBS-cijfers zien
  • Niet eerder was zo’n groot deel van de Nederlanders aan het werk
  • Euro daalt na teleurstellende ZEW-cijfers
  • Britse begrotingswaakhond waarschuwt voor diepe recessie bij harde brexit
  • Het scherp van de snede
  • Zonder migrant dreigt krimp

Italian interest rates have continued to fall in the last week. The Italian government is undergoing turbulence which has a positive sentiment on the financial markets. The Italian banks have benefited from the improved relationship between Rome and Brussels and together with a number of measurements being taken they are steadily improving their position. In addition, the lower interest rates on Italian government bonds have a direct financial impact on the banks balances. As they note up to 20% of the Italian debt a falling interest rates significantly improves the valuation of that debt on their balance sheets.

  • Hoe Italiaanse banken orde op zaken stellen
  • Italiaanse rente daalt in de hoop op verkiezingen

In Greece the new conservative prime minster Kyriakos Mitsotakis was able to easily collect 2,5 Billion euro at 1,9% which is an absolute low rate. This comes to show that the financial markets have good faith in the Greece and its new PM.

  • Athene haalt miljarden op, maar wil meer dan goedkoop lenen
  • Griekenland haalt vlot 2,5 miljard euro op aan bodemrente
  • Nieuwe Griekse regering geeft meteen staatsobligatie uit

Chinese growth has hit 6,2% this quarter, which a deterioration of 20 bp towards the previous quarter. This is the lowest point in 27 years and approaching the 6% bottom growth number which is the threshold of the Chinese government (6%-6,5%). Both national as international demand is low. If we take into account that this number is slightly pimped by the government which pushes production in state owned companies in the last month of a quarter when the numbers are seeming to be disappointing, we might have already reach the threshold.

  • Groeitempo Chinese economie laagste in 27 jaar

The new Turkish central banker will deliver what the president requires and lower the rent. This confirms the failed independence of the Turkish central bank. What will be the consequence is unclear however the volatility of the economy and the likelihood of a recession are not diminished.

  • Nieuwe Turkse centrale bankier: rente zal drastisch dalen

With the official resignation of Lagarde, it is clear that she will head the ECB and success Draghi. Who will be her successor is not yet decided. The Dutch believe their Dijsselbloem has a shot however some of his statements concerning the southern European economies in the past make this unlikely. Europe however should come up with a single candidate if they were to be successful in delivering the new head of the IMF.

  • Lagarde neemt officieel ontslag bij IMF
  • Zuid-Europa is uitspraken mogelijke IMF-kandidaat Dijsselbloem nog niet vergeten
  • Kansen Dijsselbloem op IMF-topjob lijken te slinke

Real Estate News


  • Whitewood rekruteert bij Colliers – Expertise
  • Gewest voltooit inhuurname Silver Tower – Expertise
  • Dubbelslag van BPI en Moury op Val Benoit – Expertise
  • Cores leidt aankoop ex AXA van Cofinimmo – Expertise
  • Kantoorconcept Fosbury & Sons betrekt fors metrage in Den Haag – VGJ
  • RVB verlengt huurvontract cirva 12.100 m² kantoorruimte Utrecht – VGJ
  • Procter & Gamble Nederland verhuist naar centrum Rotterdam – VGJ
  • PMT koopt kantoorgebouw De Rijntoren in Arnhem – VGJ
  • Dura Vermeer start bouw nieuw ‘inspiration centre’ – VGJ
  • EDGE-hoodkantoor pakt allerhoogste WELL-certificaat voor gezond gebouw – VGJ
  • Groot lab met kantoren op Amsterdam Science Park – VGJ
  • Huurder koopt kantoorgebouw Moutstaete in Enschede – VGJ
  • Spikspliternieuw hoofdkantoor Danone heeft hoogtse groene wand van Europa – VGJ
  • Kantorenbelegger NSI gaat breder kijken dan alleen kantoren – FD


  • Klachtenmolen weegt op omzet promoteren – Expertise
  • Woonproject Lux neemt snelle start in Gent – Expertise
  • Zebra haalt 70% voorverkoop in Jourdan Garden – Expertise
  • Huur vrijesectorwoningen stijgt minder hard – FD
  • Prijzen nieuwe koopwoningen stijgen 10% in eerste kwartaal – FD
  • Drierivierenpunt in Ridderkerk krijgt twee woontorens – VGJ
  • IC Netherlands komt met nog een “The Fizz” woonconcept in hoofdstad – VGJ




Research Archive

29 September 2019 Research Week 39
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22 September 2019 Research Week 38
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15 September 2019 Research week 37
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8 September 2019 Research week 36
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1 September 2019 Research week 35
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25 August 2019 Research Week 34
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18 August 2019 Research Week 33
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11 August 2019 Research Week 32
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30 July 2019 Research Week 31
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30 July 2019 Research Week 29
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