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Macro-economic insights

Weekly update: week 39

The PMI index for many European countries is negative (below 50) which hints on a recession. The (processing) industry is in recession and growth in the serviced economy is deteriorating. The weak growth goes hand in hand with a weak demand and close to absent inflation. Dieter Kempf, the German minister of industry, fears that Trump, in the run up to the US election, the US-EU trade war will escalate further which hurts German industry. In what manner and how resilient the European economy is will become clear in the coming months.

  • Eurozone op rand van recessie – FD (23/9/2019)
  • Duitse industriebaas hoopt op politieke omslag in VS – FD (25/9/2019)

Draghi gave his thirtieth and last speech as chairman of the ECB. In his opinion the forecast for the economic region are negative due to protectionism on a global level. The countries with a surplus on their budget should stimulate the economy and the countries with a deficit should restructer further. He believes his current policy is needed to support the weak growth of Europe. German direction member of the ECB, Sabine Lautenschläger, resigns from her role at the ECB. Assumed is that she disagrees with the restart of the QE program which is against her monetary principles.

  • Kritische ECB-bestuurder Lautenschläger stapt op – FD (25/9/2019)
  • Vertrek Duitse ‘havik’ tekent verdeeldheid binnen ECB – FD (26/9/2019)
  • Draghi: herstel van de eurozone is niet in zicht – FD (24/9/2019)

White smoke in the trade war? US and China are closer to a deal, with Trump postponing planned tarrifs and China lowering its tarrifs on agricultural products the two parties are hovering towards a trade deal. The details and some implication of this deal might still be a point of discussion. Previous deals always failed in the last stage of the stage of negotiations.

  • Dooi in handelsconflict: VS en China tonen goede wil – FD (27/9/2019)

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29 septembre 2019 Research Week 39
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30 juillet 2019 Research Week 29
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